A Random Walk Down Wall Street

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin

Lessons learnt: Invest in passive index funds for a very long time with money you won’t need until retirement!

Stocks go up and stocks go down – that’s about it for my knowledge on stock markets. In A Random Walk Down Wall Street Burton G. Malkiel argues that I’m not too different from almost all financial ‘advisers’. After reading the book your knowledge has however gained two very important pieces of information:

1. Stocks tend to go up in the long run (by as much as 8%)
2. You (nor your fancy broker) can predict stocks in the short (to medium) term

In 400+ pages Malkiel will take you on a journey through topics like stocks and their value, how the pros invest, and how you should invest. In the end, you will be able to separate the wheat from the chaff and start making your next investment decisions.

Random Walk

“A random walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on the basis of past history”. Malkiel argues that the past performance of a stock is no guarantee for future performance. He argues that a monkey throwing darts will do as well on the stock market as your next best financial ‘expert’. And he has historical data backing him up.

Throughout the 400+ pages you will be introduced to a myriad of examples, let’s discuss only one here. Let’s say that you have the opportunity to choose between investing in Apple or Microsoft. The first has grown (or stagnated) steadily for many years. The second has grown much in the last decade. Which one would you choose?

Many people would – I think – choose Apple. It’s cool, hip and trending. It has outperformed Microsoft and many other competitors. And it’s stock has been on the rise for a long time. So what could go wrong? That is exactly the same thing as people thought about internet companies at the beginning of the 2000’s – right before the dot-com crisis.

And I’m not saying Apple is a bad company. I’m saying that you don’t know if there is another Tech bubble forming, or that there won’t be any strikes at the manufacturing plants of Apple. I’m saying that the past performance of Apple (or other companies) is no guarantee for future performance. And to the question which one of the two I would buy, probably both – in an index fund.

Rationality

Malkiel argues that stock markets are rational and that’s where I disagree with him. In one of the first chapters, he writes about tulip crazes in early 1600’s – prices that didn’t correspond with reality. Later on, he describes the housing bubble, dot-com crisis, etc, etc. So how can he defend the Efficient-Market Hypothesis?

He does so by changing the argument on which a price of a stock should be based. He states that it’s about how much people are willing to pay, not X times earnings. He argues that markets will always correct themselves and that pricing is only of for a short time.

I wish to disagree (psychology graduate speaking here) and argue that psychology has much more to do with it than Malkiel lets shine through. Yes, he devotes one chapter to behavioural economics and recognizes that people are not rational. But he forgets that effects like sunk-costs influence not only the stocks people hold onto, they also affect everything from building projects to marriage duration. I would even argue that our irrationality influences how we code the computers that we let do our bidding – so I can’t understand how Malkiel argues that the markets are rational.

“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” – Robert G. Allen

Investment Advice

What I do believe and appreciate is his investment advice. Although Malkiel believes in rational markets he also fully understands that predicting the future of stocks is like rolling a dice. You can’t predict which number you are going to roll, but you do know that on average you will throw 3,5 (or 7 with two dice). And so it is with stock markets, you don’t know the short term but you do know that it will go up in the long term.

Therefore you should invest with longevity in mind. Invest only money that you don’t need to access for a very long time. Let the magic of compounding interests work for you and see how twenty years of 8% interest leads to a 366% increase in your money (and not 8*20=160%).

Investing should also be passive (again – you can’t predict short-term effects for individual stocks) and in an index fund. For the long term, you won’t be able to predict if Apple and Microsoft will still be around, but you can (more safely) assume that the stock market will have grown.

To sum up, all the advice and fine details of A Random Walk Down Wall Street wouldn’t do the book justice. As a starting investor, the book has helped me a great deal to better understand the ins and outs of stocks. The practical advice is very actionable (but uses American examples) and will definitively also help you further!

What Color is Your Parachute

“It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.” – Franklin Roosevelt

Lessons learnt: Searching for a job has changed dramatically over the last decades. The core to a successful approach has not – first map yourself, and then look a job that best fits you. The technique is more demanding of you (it takes time and effort) but will pay off handsomely by providing you with a ‘fit’ with your employer, knowledge of your values, skills, interests (and more) and possibly a job that was created especially for you.

Many people are looking for jobs – recent graduates, career changers, people in their 50’s, and the list goes on. Some people hop right over to Monsterboard or LinkedIn – they are successful sometimes. Other people join groups and follow an intensive course in which they learn about writing your resume and look for jobs from 9 to 5 – they are successful a bit more often. And other people introspect before looking at the job market, they look at the qualities they have, the work they would like to do, the people to do it with, and only then start looking for the perfect job – they are successful the most often. This is what What Color is Your Parachute? (Parachute) by Richard Bolles is all about.

“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.” – Reinhold Niebuhr

The introduction of Parachute is used to shed light on the current job hunting environment. Bolles gives insight into how employers are hiring (they want a familiar face) and how many jobs are actually out there (seven million this month in the US alone). Tips are provided on two topics of interest to everyone; 1) interviewing for a job, and 2) salary negotiation. After that, he introduces the concept of the creative job-hunt. Crucial here are three questions:

1. What are your skills that you most love to use?
2. Where would you most love to use these skills?
3. How do you go about finding such places?

The first two are answered by filling in your own ‘Flower Diagram’. This tackles seven different aspects of you – all of them definable with the exercises provided in the book. The ‘petals’ are concerned with the following areas:

1. My favourite knowledges or fields of interest
2. My preferred kinds of people to work with
3. What I can do and love to do – my favourite transferable skills
4. My favourite working conditions
5. My preferred salary and level of responsibility
6. My preferred place(s) to live
7. My goal, purpose, or mission in life

Some of these things you may know by heart and have a clear vision about. Others you might want to research and ask friends about. Altogether it will take you no less than 20 hours to read the book and complete the exercises. This maybe sounds like a long time, but if you put it in the perspective of working weeks, it is barely half a week of work (and that to find your dream job).

In the final chapters, Bolles explains how you should go and make a list, ask friends about jobs that might suit your skills/interests/working conditions/etc. and start doing informational interviews. This means you have to find people that work there and figure out if you would want to work there (not if they would like you). After that, you can start filtering your list and apply for your dream job.

For 40 years Parachute has been edited to stay up-to-date. It has not lost its touch and Bolles has a very pleasant way of writing. Although many things have changed over the years, the basic principles still hold strong.

The Singularity is Near

In The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil puts forth an idea. It’s a basic idea, something every person on this planet is able to grasp. Yet at the same time it’s a mindset changing idea, an idea so big that most people can’t get their head around it.

The idea is about growth.

Moore’s Law

Aa

Exponential Growth

Aa

The Difficult Part

Understanding it for ourselves. Growth of machine learning, general AI, mars (musk on wait but why). Don’t know, very curious where we end up.

Link back to AI post

Homo Deus

Immortality, happiness, divinity.

Narconomics

TBD

Rocket Surgery Made Easy

TBD

Ball Lightning

TBD

It Doesn’t Have to Be Crazy at Work

TBD

Origins

Origins by Dan Brown is yet another great book by this excellent writer. He knows how to keep you reading and I loved how this book touches upon some deep topics.

I will just make a short review for my own notes so please don’t read further if you haven’t read the book yet.

In the book there is an AI (Winston, from Winston Churchill) and it’s portrait as an AI system that I believe is only decades away. It knows how to find information, how to process requests (and understand our underlying questions) and even communicate with the outside world.

In the end one of the aspects of this is that he makes decisions that follow a consequentialist philosophical leaning (greatest good for the most people) and he makes sacrifices along the way. It’s something that we have to think about a lot nowadays. Self-driving cars will have to decide for us and someone has to program it what to do.

Can we decide on one moral framework? I don’t think so. But it will be very interesting to see what we can do.

Also he talks about AI as a new species and I like that analogy and I agree that it will probably be the dominant species in the not so distant future (especially looking on an evolutionary timescale). Let’s hope it has consciousness.

Also see Life 3.0 for more about that.